Macro fear makes it a good time to buy.

The most popular headline on Bloomberg on Monday June 13, 2011 was:
 
“’Perfect Storm’ May Threaten Global Economy”,  based on comments from Nouriel Roubini. 
 
For those who choose to read on a bit further, they would read the following:
 
“There’s a one-in-three chance the factors will combine to stunt growth from 2013, Roubini said in a June 11 interview in Singapore. Other possible outcomes are “anemic but OK” global growth or an “optimistic” scenario in which the expansion improves.”   
 
Said another way, there is two-in-three chance that growth beyond 2013 will be good.
 
We are now over 3 years past the start of the “financial crisis” and over 2 years past the bottom of the crisis.  The economy and markets move in cycles and not linearly with, on average, at least one downturn per decade.  Therefore, one would not have to be prescient to predict that there will be another economic and market downturn during the next 7 years.  The question is whether that expectation is sufficient justification for not investing or disinvesting.  History suggests that the gains to be made in between downturns dramatically exceed the losses during downturns.  Doesn’t that history suggest that, notwithstanding the likelihood of a downturn somewhere in the future, the way to earn attractive investment returns is to be invested during the up-cycle, especially when fear drives the prices of quality businesses down?